Most U.S. States Return to Growth

According to the latest data released by the Census Bureau, most U.S. states have returned to population growth in 2024. While in 2023, eight states were shrinking, this was down to just three last year. Notably, three economically successful states - California, Illinois and New York - returned to growth, as did Hawaii, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Louisiana. This is despite the fact that New York and Illinois had started to see their populations decline under the old Census since 2016 and 2014, respectively, while California experienced a stagnating number of inhabitants in 2019 and started losing population in 2020 as the pandemic disrupted regular migration patterns and caused 19 states to shrink at the height of the trend in 2022.

One analysis from New York concludes that changes in border enforcement under the Biden administration caused the swings for the city, which is a hub for immigrants from all over the world. In fact, shrinking U.S. states typically experience domestic outmigration and positive international in-migration, with the latter often having to outweigh the former in order to create growth. In the case of New York and Chicago, domestic out-migration that boomed in the Covid era softened over time, aiding in this process. The Census also said that it had revised its methodology to better caputure all immigrants, including humanitarian ones like refugees from Venezuela or Ukraine. For the latter, Illinois is traditionally a popular destination.

West Virginia was the only state that shrunk in 2023 and 2024, while in the last year, Mississippi and Vermont also started to lose population.

Americans resettling because of high cost of living do play a role in domestic outmigration, but changes in immigration into the U.S. have also had a big part in the state's ongoing population decline as immigrants increasingly diversify their destinations in the U.S., favoring - like domestic migrants - the Sun Belt states, but also smaller cities.