Will Ukraine Aid Collapse Under Trump?

The White House late on Monday froze Ukraine aid payments in a decision other world leaders said they had not been previously notified of. While European leaders pledged to step up their support in the difficult situation, a calculation from the IfW Ukraine Support Tracker shows how large the hole left by U.S. aid in 2025 is, but also which initiatives are currently underway to send more funds to Ukraine.

With the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president at the beginning of November, the future of aid for Ukraine was first thrown into limbo. Trump has been an outspoken critic of U.S. military commitments abroad as part of his infamous claim to "make America great again". IfW researchers, which have been tracking aid to Ukraine's war effort, have calculated hypothetical scenarios of what they believe Ukraine aid could look like in 2025.

The researchers estimate that 2025 aid to Ukraine would total around $119 billion if donations continued following 2024 trends. Trump cutting all aid lowers this to just $85 billion, leaving a gap of 34 billion opposite the baseline scenario. As many European countries look towards the U.S. for pointers on their aid strategies, the researchers propose another scenario where European aid also decreases by 50 percent if U.S. aid decreases to zero. In this case, the release estimates a gap of $59 billion in 2025 opposite 2024.

However, new funding avenues have been opening up for Ukraine. NATO in July pledged $42 billion in coordinated aid for 2025, while the G7 recently finalized a plan to loan Ukraine $48 billion backed by frozen Russian central bank assets. Both of these vehicles would fill the gap of even the researchers' most negative scenario. However, many experts say that instead of just maintaining Ukraine aid levels, support would have to be raised to lead the nation to victory.