Today’s World Is One of Selective Alignments

While U.S., European and Russian leaders frequently use rhetoric of competing ideologies and political systems, survey data indicates that the Cold War mindset of “us or them” does not necessarily reflect global public opinion. According to an analysis by the European Council on Foreign Relations, the general public of several of the so-called “middle powers” see the benefits of siding with potential partners based on individual issues.

For example, in a 2023 survey, the ECRF found that across eight countries, respondents were more likely to want to move closer to the U.S. and its partners when it comes to the question of human rights and security. But when it comes to trade, favor slides towards China.

As the following chart shows, only Russia had a greater share of respondents opting for a closer partnership with China than the U.S. on the topic of security cooperation out of the eight polled countries. While around a third of respondents said they would prefer their country to be closer to China in South Africa and Saudi Arabia, nearly 50 percent in each still said they would prefer their country to be closer to the U.S. and its partners.

It’s a similar picture in terms of human rights. The top countries in favor of being closer to the U.S. and its partners were South Korea, India and Brazil, with upwards of six in ten respondents choosing the option. Russia was the only country of the eight where a higher share of respondents opted for China (at 32 percent, while 16 percent of Russians said the U.S.).

In terms of trade, five of the eight polled countries (Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey and Indonesia) had a higher share of respondents saying they would choose to be closer to China and its partners than to the U.S. Only India, Brazil and South Korea said otherwise, although the difference between the two options in the latter was narrow at just 5 percentage points.

ECRF analysts found that while Europe and the U.S. are generally considered as more attractive places to live than China and Russia, a majority of respondents in many countries around the world do not particularly want full political alignment with any of these powers.